Hello everyone. This is my very first post on Cryptocube and I am excited to be able to share my thoughts, analysis and trading setups on this platform!
In the past, most of it would be in the form of tweetstorms, so you can get a feel for my style by going on my Twitter profile and checking older posts. However from now on, Cryptocube – alongside Tradingview – will be the main platform where I’ll be sharing everything from specific thoughts on current events to deep dives using technical, fundamental and quantitative methods to try to interpret the current market conditions, based on five years of trading experience. I’ll try to share my “Market Snapshots” almost daily, while deep dives will be coming out on the traditional market weekly open. Alright,enough with the intro, let’s take a look at the markets!
Things got overheated in crypto and we just got a correction. A few days ago I mentioned how ETH and BTC would probably squeeze small-mid caps, and yesterday I had mentioned that we were getting near a top based on TA and by how crazy things were getting in DeFi. So far I don’t see anything that says the bull market is over, however yes I can see BTC going to 10.5-10.8k over the next 1-2 weeks and potentially to 9.5-9.8k in case we get a strong USD bounce.
Stocks are also in a massive uptrend, but even I, a massive stock bull am starting to think that we could see a strong correction before stocks go into the final parabolic stage. That along with a USD correction could easily push BTC into the 9-10k zone. Essentially what worries me the most in terms of my bullish thesis is the DXY going above 96-97, something that could potentially do a lot of damage in crypto and most other markets. Yes I’ve been bullish everything other than the USD, but I am really not of the opinion that the USD is going to die any time soon.
For now it is clear that many alts are in correction mode and many have probably topped for quite some time. In my opinion this correction will probably last another week before the market starts going crazy again, and by that I mean the majority of coins going up and not just DeFi. Older and non ERC coins/tokens have been suffering due to the fact that so many new coins are coming on the market fresh, straight on uniswap, sucking liquidity from cexes markets. Their returns have been much smaller than DeFi and this trend could last for a lot longer.
The truth is that alts have been in a bull market against Bitcoin since September 2019, and in a really strong bull market since mid May 2020 which is quite a long time, yet the trend seems to be getting stronger, not weaker. We’ve seen lots of crazy things with tons of coins going up 5-10-20-100x or more, yet the total crypto market cap is still very low. The altcoin marketcap is still 70% below its ATH and only 15% higher from where it was in late June 2020, while the overall fundamentals and quantitative data are telling me that the market is 20x better than back then. So to me it is more of a question as to whether Bitcoin, Ethereum or other coins will have a better relative performance, and if so, what would the best entries be.
Trying to look at the bigger picture and not short term movements, as my long term thesis really hasn’t changed, I’ll give everything a week to settle. As the old adage goes: the trend is your friend until it’s not.